MVP race · Method · Numbers as of Nov 13, 2026

How the OBX
is calculated

The OBX is our own index. It doesn't try to guess how the media will vote: it says who, by our criteria, deserves the award today. Here's how we get there, criterion by criterion, with today's numbers. Pick a candidate and follow his calculation.

130ranked players: at least 26 minutes a game and half of their team's games
5criteria, each graded from 0 to 100
0 → 100zero for the worst ranked player, 100 for the best

The principle

Each criterion is measured with a raw number (a Game Score, a win percentage, a point differential…). To add them up, we put them all on the same scale: among ranked players, the best gets 100, the worst gets 0, and everyone else is placed in between, in proportion. The OBX is then the average of those five grades, each with its own weight.

The calculation for

Victor WembanyamaSan Antonio Spurs · 11-2 · No. 2 in the race

92.5OBX

1
Production
35%87
What the player produces every game, not just in scoring.
Game Score per game = points + 0.4 × field goals made − 0.7 × field goals attempted − 0.4 × free throws missed + 0.7 × offensive rebounds + 0.3 × defensive rebounds + steals + 0.7 × assists + 0.7 × blocks − 0.4 × fouls − turnovers
26.70 Sion James · 4.3100 Luka Dončić · 30.0
The heaviest criterion. A formula by John Hollinger: everything that helps the team counts for, everything that costs it counts against.
2
Winning
25%100
The team's record, but only the boss's share.
Team win %, graded from 0 to 100, then × the boss's share (his production ÷ that of his team's best player, capped at 1)
84.6%0 Milwaukee Bucks (1-12) · 7.7%100 Los Angeles Lakers (11-2) · 84.6%
A team's best player keeps all of its wins, his lieutenants only a share. Otherwise the third option on a 60-win team would rank ahead of a lone genius.
3
Impact
20%100
What the team becomes when he's on the floor, and when he isn't.
(point differential with him per 48 min + difference with his minutes on the bench) ÷ 2
+38.80 Darius Garland · −24.6100 Victor Wembanyama · +38.8
This is the "away from the ball" criterion: it sees what doesn't show up in the box score. Very sensitive to luck early in the season, very telling in April.
4
Efficiency
10%70
Points gained through shooting efficiency, volume included.
points scored − points an average league shooter would have scored on the same shots and free throws, per game
+2.5 pts0 Brandon Miller · −4.8 pts100 Stephen Curry · +5.6 pts
70% on five shots is nice. 62% on twenty-five shots is an MVP: accuracy and workload in a single number.
5
Availability
10%100
The share of the missed-games budget still intact.
(1 − games missed ÷ 17) × 100
To win, a player must have played 65 games of at least 20 minutes (two games between 15 and 20 minutes are allowed). So he can miss 17. Beyond that, he can't win anymore: his OBX is cut in half.

The total

ProductionWinningImpactEfficiencyAvailability

Worth keeping in mind

A grade is relative. 87 in production doesn't mean "87% of the best": it means 87% of the way from the worst to the best ranked player. When a player enters or leaves the group, grades move a little.
Defense is hard to see. Blocks and steals count, and impact captures part of the rest. But the shot nobody dares to take against a great defender shows up nowhere.
Early season is noisy. Over ten or so games, impact and efficiency can swing a lot. The OBX settles down as the weeks go by.
It's not a prediction. Narrative, voter fatigue, history: the OBX ignores them. On purpose.

The MVP race Our full method