FREN

Section · Updated throughout the season

Right
or wrong?

Alex has strong opinions. Here we check them against the numbers, with an honest verdict, even when it stings. Every take has a review date: as the games pile up, the verdict can change, either way.

Alex's take

“Wembanyama will be MVP in April.”

Too early

For now, he's 2nd in the OBX (92.5), 4.5 points behind Dončić (97). He leads in impact and availability (no games missed), Dončić in production and efficiency. 69 games to go: too early to call.

  • 92.5 / 97OBX for Wembanyama, then Dončić
  • 0 / 2games missed: Wembanyama, then Dončić (the 65-game rule allows 17)
  • 11-2the Spurs' record, same as the Lakers'

Too early for the numbers. Your call?

 

Verdict in April, at the vote. The feature

Alex's take

“Harper will be better than Dybantsa.”

Too early

The duel has begun, and Harper leads: 17.3 points per game to Dybantsa's 15.0, with far better efficiency. But nine games for Dybantsa is still too few, and the question is about ten years.

  • 17.3points per game for Harper (13 games), starting for an 11-2 team
  • 15.0points per game for Dybantsa (9 games), who debuted on October 28
  • 58 / 49%True Shooting: Harper, then Dybantsa

Too early for the numbers. Your call?

 

We'll check again when Dybantsa has played twenty games. The feature

Alex's take

“Fox is not the right point guard next to Wembanyama.”

Wrong

The probation is over, and Fox passed with flying colours. With him alongside, Wembanyama and the Spurs are +228; without him, only +22. And his efficiency, my last argument, is holding up: 62.1% True Shooting. It stings, but it's clear.

  • +228point differential when Fox plays with Wembanyama, in 288 minutes
  • +22when Wembanyama plays without Fox, in 94 minutes
  • 62.1%True Shooting for Fox, with 13 of 40 from three

The numbers say Alex is wrong. Who is right?

 

Verdict delivered after 12 games. Alex is still allowed not to like him. The feature

Alex's take

“The Spurs' problem is the bench, not the starting five.”

Right

Still true at 11-2: the three-guard lineup crushes everyone, and the minutes without Wembanyama stay in the red. The blowout against Golden State softened the bill a little, nothing more. The bench hasn't improved.

  • −78in 248 minutes without Wembanyama
  • −51for Luke Kornet, the backup center, in 195 minutes
  • +86for the three-guard lineup, in 113 minutes

Alex and the numbers agree. Do you?

 

Reviewed after twenty games. The feature

Alex's take

“In Philadelphia, LeBron is no longer the boss.”

Right

The engine is still the Maxey-Brown-Embiid trio, and LeBron is only the fourth-leading scorer. The trio is actually much better without him alongside. That said, LeBron doesn't hurt the team: with or without him, it breaks even.

  • +35for Maxey, Brown and Embiid without LeBron, in 54 minutes (−5 in 126 minutes with him)
  • 15.1points per game for LeBron, the team's fourth-leading scorer
  • 0 / −4for the Sixers with LeBron on the floor, then on the bench

Alex and the numbers agree. Do you?

 

Reviewed after twenty games. The feature

Alex's take

“You support a player, not a city.”

Right

Jersey buyers follow players when they change teams. The one exception: New York, where the team comes before everyone.

  • +21%jersey sales on NBAStore.com after Dončić was traded to the Lakers
  • 1stDončić's rank in the jersey rankings two months later, in his new colours
  • 1st / 3rdthe Knicks, first in team merchandise, with Brunson only 3rd in jerseys

Alex and the numbers agree. Do you?

 

Reviewed with the next jersey rankings, in January. The feature

The numbers come from the feature linked to each take, where their sources are listed. How we read them: our method.